News Analysis
The Federal Reserve’s policy-making arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), will likely shift from the aggressive interest-rate cut during its September meeting to a moderate cut in its November meeting, to be held Nov. 6–7. However, the path to lower interest rates remains to be determined, as mixed data complicate the job of the nation’s central bank.
As of Nov. 1, the CME’s FedWatch Tool, which monitors the chances of changes in the federal funds rate, pointed to a 98.9 percent probability of a 25 basis-point cut.
This probability has risen from 67.9 percent a month ago to 95.1 percent a week ago. At the same time, the likelihood of a sizable 50 basis-point cut, like that of September, dropped from 4.9 percent a week ago to 1.1 percent on Nov. 1….